In various articles previously published on Casinoz, we told that almost all gambling has some casino advantage, which allows the casino to gain profit. In most cases, overcoming it by legal means is not possible and no betting systems and sellers of specialized software can help.
We monitored some popular Russian-language forums and blogging platforms dedicated to casino. We saw that a great many people believe in stories in guaranteed wins at roulette, video slots, online blackjack, and so on.
We understand that for readers of Casinoz the words of some self-proclaimed guru of excitement, claiming that, for example, you can win roulette may not be as important. So, we call on the assistance of a specialist.
We suggest you reading the article by Professor of Mathematics Eliot Jacobson. He is a professor at Ohio University and the University of Arizona, and is currently working at the Department of Computer Science, University of California.
The article discusses the blackjack betting system as an example, but the general principles are the same for all gambling. You probably know that the same people are trying to use Martingale not only for a roulette, slot machines or blackjack, but also betting on sporting events, and even financial markets.
Originally from BJInsider.
Betting systems and casino advantage
The success of the casino's no mystery. People use betting games with a stuffy casino advantage. The administration does not care about their personal wins or loses. The only care is about the amount of money bet on the line. In this case, the wide dispersion of personal bets is leveled, and the casino's revenues are according to this basic equation:
Earnings = (total bets) X (casino advantage)
Any progression rates based on the belief that the formula is wrong. This is an attempt to counter the laws of economics and mathematics with the bets made on the model installed in order to change the house edge.
Progression bets is a system where the current bet of interest is determined by the result of a previous drawing. Many authors write books about such systems, arguing that they help to win if combined with bankroll management methods and correct tactics. Since the system is easy, many people try in practice. Most of them lose. Some win.
If some players win using this betting system, it can be regarded as a way to gain an advantage. Moreover, the arguments in favor of logical progression bets. But it is important to understand that most of customers beckons neither more nor less than a high level of dispersion of gambling.
Of course, some players win. Winners are normal. But other players lose. Ultimately, the amount of losing is more than that paid out as winnings, and the final result is the casino's advantage.
On the other hand, the "authors" and "experts" who extol betting system usually accuse losers of defeats. They argue that those are not disciplined or not fully understood the system (it means it's inability to accuretly predict the future loser). They point to a myriad of winners (there are always winners - it's a fact). They argue that computer simulations prove that their systems are a scam, not able to recreate the "real world." They invent fantastic theories, plaiting chaos and fractals, but never explain them to the end. They publish articles on Internet forums, mentioning "guys chopping in mathematics", and minor flaws. They hire advertising experts who send press releases. Talk about them in the media. And, the worst thing they enjoy the confidence of the public.
But betting system does not give a player an advantage over the casino. Illusory arguments, reports based on individual examples, and catchy cover can not overcome the physical laws of the universe.
No system can change the bets of casino advantage. Players using this system lose on the predetermined bets.
However, progression bets affect the money played. Let's have a closer look at two systems.
The first progression we will analyze is called The Martingale System . This progression is the most common, It uses blackjack players (not to mention roulette). According to it, a player starts with a base bet (say, $10). If he loses, he doubles the bet on the next hand. Doubling it continues as long as the wins. After winning the bet is reduced to the original amount of $10. When the draw bet remains unchanged. Always leaving with a win, the user secures a winning.
It seems certain. For example, if the sequence is loss-lose-win (LLW), then the player would bet $10 - $20 - $40. He lost $10 and $20, which means a loss of $30, but then he won $40 and a profit of $10. Consider a longer sequence:
It is easy to calculate a profit of a Player: the base rate is multiplied by the total number of wins in the series. In this case: 10 x $5 = $50 victories.
What can be wrong with this logic? You should just go after the victory, and a player always has money in the pocket.
However, there are many reasons that a player can not always play after the win. For example, in the previous sequence, before winning the last time, along the customer lost $10,190. Few can keep such a loss and continue to play. In the final hand, the player bet $10,240 for winning $10.
The situation with ten consecutive failures is not uncommon. This happens approximately every 1540 hands (or fifteen hours of play). A series of ten defeats almost always happens during any long trip to Las Vegas.
What if defeating on fifteen hands? Then the player will have to put down $327,680. In blackjack, a series of fifteen defeats occurs on average once every one hundred hours of play. But what to do a split or double? And what if this hand is losing?
In the end it you should better recall the stakes tables. They are not installed in order to beat the system Martingale. This is a losing system. Betting limits are set to protect the bank on the result of one big bet on the draw, when you can have a conspiracy. Furthermore, such things separate the total weight of VIP-players. Still, most of the tables range of bets allows seven or eight times to double Martingale.
As a result of playing according to the Martingale system often leaves the majority of customers with little revenue, because they are not faced with a long series after loss. But in rare cases when a player can not to get away with a plus, the loss would be enormous.
A system in which bets rise after losing, called "negative progression". Lure of this type of systems is the frequency of winning sessions. Almost every time the player can leave the winnings and bankroll increase by a small amount. The problem is that a losing round can be disastrous for the player, and he should be afraid of the long series of losses.
The long stretch of wins and losses add up to the casino advantage. The player is not able to overcome the "law of bets."
Another type of betting systems used by many players, is "positive progression" (Playing on the pyramid, Parlay, accumulation rates, etc.). Customers often view their winnings as casino money, so they tend to more freely dispose of them to win more.
In such systems, a player is ready to take small frequent defeats trying to break the huge jackpot. He did not want to bankroll (because he does not need to compensate for the lost money), so the risk of complete failure in every session is not so large, but the potential gain is quite big.
For example, the usual blackjack progression is "almost" double down after a win. The player makes a base bet, for example, $10. After the first victory he bets $15 (double ten-bet and then takes $5, which puts it in "winning" the stack). After winning the second (BB), he bets $25 (double bet and takes $5). After the third consecutive successful outcome (BBB), the rate is $45 ($25 + $25 - $5). If he loses, he starts with $10 again.
A typical sequence of ten hands might look like this: WWLLWLLLWW. Our player has won at bets of $10, $15, $10, $10 and $15. He lost at bets of $25, $10, $15, $10, $10. The result of this series was a loss of $10. He lost a little, chasing a big jackpot.
So what a player hopes for? How about WWWWWWWWWW, followed by termination of the game? In this case, he made the following bets proved a winning $10, $15, $25, $45, $85, $165, $325, $645, $1285 and $2565. Because he believes that money means for the casino. He tore the jackpot, winning $5165 with an initial bet of $10.
He gets up from the table to the applause of others. He is asked to share his wise and mysterious procedure that guarantees the win. He wrote a book about his system. Knowledge gained in this magical evening, helping him to sell a million copies. Do not buy this book!
Using positive progressions is tempting to get a huge win. A player hopes for such a rare, but an event that will prove once and for all power system - a long winning streak can change the rest of his life. The problem is that long winning series are rare. The usual outcome of an evening at the casino will be a small loss. This is similar to slot machines and mathematical component is the same.
On long wins and losses he adds up to the casino advantage. The player is not able to overcome the "law of bets".
Betting systems are not used by professional players, and they do not help to win at blackjack (as well as roulette or video slots). Their use naive players who believe useless nonsense, explaining simple "winning" systems.
The casino's advantage is not just another number - it is THE LAW .
We have no doubt that the authors and distributors of software that claim to help you win at roulette, blackjack or video slots and say that all of the above has nothing to do with their software. But think about it: almost all their programs suggest when to bet, analyzing the results of previous spins. Is not it the same thing?
Of course, some claim that they were able to use algorithm Drop the ball in the virtual roulette wheel, or they know some other secrets of online casinos. All this is nonsense. Remember that in a fair casino a random number generator gives numbers on the roulette, which is not in the algorithm.
And, in the end, I want to quote Michael Shackleford, the author and owner of a famous portal about casinos and gambling Wizardofodds. In the last paragraph of the section "The truth about betting systems," he says:
"Please do not write. I never reply to emails, which suggests that using a betting system can be a long stretch to win the game with negative expectation. Such letters are removed immediately".
If our opinion is not enough for you, listen to the words of Professor of Mathematics and the famous American expert in the field of gambling.
Do not believe illusions. Do not expect that you can purchase a wonderful program or system of bets that will make you a billionaire. Such products make rich only those who sell them.