In various articles, reviews and comments published on Casinoz we have repeatedly argued that the betting system (not to be confused with optimal strategies) can not change the percentage of the casino advantage in online casino games.
Hence the conclusion : they can not help you win.
We have given the hard facts, translated articles by foreign scientists, mathematicians, engaged in open debate with software vendors, ostensibly guaranteeing victory in the casino - in short, made every effort to show you the truth.
Nevertheless, some our readers and casual visitors were not convinced. Many of them are convinced that there is a betting system that really will help them win. We are not going to retreat and will continue to struggle with the illusions.
We will tell you about the practical experiment, which for several years pursued Michael Sheklford, the owner of Wizard of Odds, one of the most influential English-language web resources about casinos and gambling. If you still believe in the efficacy of betting systems, be sure to keep reading.
Between 1999 and 2005, Michael challenged all supporters of betting systems offering them a bet. He bet $20,000 against $2,000 that any system proposed by the reader will not be effective within one billion hands (spins, rolls dice, and so on). To check it, he suggested using computer simulation.
Naturally, during this time he had been approached by many, but nobody agreed to actually participate in the bet. The reasons for refusal were different. Some did not trust Sheklford (or tried to justify so), although he was not against the involvement of third parties, which would ensure fairness. Others doubted that the simulator will give the correct results (too weak " excuse "). Others tried to cheat Michael, trying to convince him to play by the rules, that initially give an advantage to the client.
It seemed that the practical tests won't happen...
The first brave
But in 2004, brave Daniel Reynsong dared to challenge Sheklford. Moreover, he was so confident that he offered to double the bet: $40,000 of Michael against his $4,000. The Owner of Wizard of Odds agreed.
After a long correspondence by e-mail, participants met personally to discuss the latest details and conduct an experiment. Daniel set a condition: if he wins, Michael should talk about this on his site and make recommendations to his book. Sheklford agreed.
Then they made a notarized contract. The entire amount of bet was assigned to an independent judge. It was a professional card counter in blackjack with a degree in statistics (his name withheld).
For the experiment they chose blackjack with the following rules :
- The game is played with two decks
- Dealer stands on "soft 17"
- Split can be done up to four times with hands on the box
- Double after split is allowed
- No splitting aces
- splitting aces with one card
- No surrender
- Dealer cuts quarter cards in the shoe
According to these rules, they could reduce the house edge to 0.26%, without resorting to any account or other methods applicable in the real game.
However the system, or as Daniel Reynsong called it, procedure, was not related to the card counting and does not depend on the depth of cutting decks in the shoe. He did not want to disclose its details, so Michael did not share it with readers.
Daniel said that for development of the technique, he used the latest scientific discoveries in the field of genetics. Ostensibly, this system allowed him to win more than eight thousand in thirty-three thousand hands at a starting bet of one dollar.
For explaining the method, Reynsong Michael tried to put pressure on the proposal to give him only half of the forty thousand without calculations. But, of course, Sheklford refused so "tempting" surrender.
The game was held in October 2004. Simulator generated one billion hands for about fourteen hours. Parties of the dispute decided to track the results of the process to see if the resulting data is apparent and stop the experiment. That this was the end.
At first, the system was winning, but it moved to minus from 170,000 before distribution. After that, the result are still deteriorating. When it was played ten million rounds, it became apparent that even coming out " on their own" will never succeed. Reynsong conceded defeat and bet on this end.
The results recorded :
- Played distributions: 10000000
- Amount of bets : 10,357,394
- Final bankroll -30 381.5
- The final hand with a positive bankroll : 168621
- Fixed house edge : 0.2933%
As you can see, the numbers speak for themselves. If the experiment continued until the end (ie, up to a billion hands), the casino advantage would probably have decreased and approached the level of 0.26%. But getting rid of it would not happen.
The author of this technique continues to sell on eBay his book on how to win at the casino, and even asked Sheklford to tell about it. And it does not surprise us, because certainly there are fools who will buy this product and try to apply it in practice. Some people are surprisingly persistent in their quest to realize impossible dreams.
Although no one else wanted to participate in the experiment. Many wrote to Michael, but no one really agreed to bet. In 2005 Sheklford announced that he no longer accepting applications.
Something similar is currently offered by his friend Michael Blyudzhey, the owner of VegasClick website. We will describe this bet in future publications on Casinoz.
We really do not want our readers to make wrong conclusions. The fact that the system Reynsongom used was in the black for almost for the first hundred and seventy thousand hands does not mean that you just need some time away from the casino.
It is only a matter of luck. If you repeat the experience, bankroll may well go into minus from the first hands. And the longer you play, the closer the overall bet will be to the theoretical one.
When it comes to blackjack, you can have an advantage over the casino. To do this, find the offline casino offering the best real rules, and then competently play with card counting and using other professional tricks. Only in practice making it much more difficult than it sounds. And in the online casino it is impossible.
We hope that the story about this awesome experiment convinced you that betting systems are useless when playing in a casino. Although the study of optimal strategies for blackjack, video poker, table poker varieties and some other games can be very useful. They really help to achieve better results.
P.S. No less interesting systems of bets and the casino's advantage are described in the article by American professor Casinoz has translated for our readers. We strongly recommend you to have a look at it.